'As if things weren't bad enough...'

Not so long ago, there was an article from a Russian news agency, to which I linked, reporting the predictions of a Russian 'expert', Igor Panarin, stating that the U.S. would break up by 2010. The article drew a fair amount of notice on conservative/nationalist blogs and forums, and we discussed it here, of course. Now (rather belatedly) the story has been picked up by the notoriously pro-open borders Wall Street Journal, and has provoked a flurry of new commentary and notice. I suppose for some people, it isn't happening unless it's reported in the so-called 'mainstream media', so they only notice it now that the WSJ reports it.

Even though we've discussed it here, since it's back in the news, why not kick this around one more time, as they are doing over at AmRen?
The comment thread at AmRen is the usual mixed bag of some very perceptive and on-target comments along with some rather uninformed or bizarre comments, some of them delivered with a bewildering degree of certitude.

Some of the repeating themes include the idea that a break-up of America is utterly impossible, usually with the reason that our central government is too strong and would never brook any kind of rebellion.

Another viewpoint is that Americans are too passive, lazy, apathetic, and ''obese'' to do anything, so such a breakup could never conceivably occur. Both this view and the first one are predicated on the belief that a breakup would have to come about through some kind of organized insurrection, or through outright civil war, whether precipitated by ethnic gangs or by disgruntled Americans.

However, as I indicated before, this need not be the case; look at what happened in many of the Eastern bloc countries in the early 90s, with the fall of the Soviet Union. There was little open conflict in most cases. Things seemed to fall of their own weight. The whole system seemed to have been rotted from within, and fell spontaneously with minimal effort.

Are we not to some extent in that situation now?

Most of the opinions on how a breakup would occur seem to differ only in details, such as how the states or former states would re-align, whether they would become independent or part of a new regional government, based on ethnic/demographic lines. Some of the predictions made seem not the least based in reality, at least as I perceive it.

We previously discussed Panarin's rather silly predictions as to the lines along which things might divide. I think the consensus is that he is way off the mark.

Another popular theme among the commenters is that the Southwest or the border states will automatically be annexed or reclaimed by Mexico, or that the 'reconquista' crowd in California will clamor to rejoin Mexico. As I've said before, I think that will be the last thing they would want; they would either hope to have an independent California populated by 'la raza', or they will simply hope to conquer all of the United States demographically if not militarily. Demographic conquest while remaining attached to America is probably more likely; they don't want independence because I think they know deep down that they would fare no better in a Latino-run California than they did back in Mexico or wherever else. They want to be able to continue to extort money from Tio Samuel, old Uncle Sugar. Why cut themselves off from the source of the goodies? After all, that's their reason for being here: covetousness.

So I think it's foolish to believe they would secede or rejoin the Southwest to Mexico. Why would they? They know that they stand to inherit the whole country if things simply continue as they are, with unabated immigration and their growing political power.

Some of the AmRen comments bizarrely claim that the 'white states' such as those in the Midwest would want to join Canada, or vice-versa. Why? Canada is infatuated, head-over-heels, with 'multiculturalism'. They are a very liberal country, and as I understand the heartland Midwest, they would have no desire to live under such a system. I realize that there are a fair number of conservatives in more rural areas of Canada, especially the prairie provinces, but are there enough of them to make a merger of the Midwest with Canada feasible?

''California, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, most of Texas and parts of Utah (“Aztlan”) will be absorbed into Mexico, essentially nineteenth century history in reverse.

Washington and Oregon,will become provinces of Canada, with which they share much culture and ideology.

Michigan will disintegrate, with the Upper Peninsular breaking away under the name “Superior” as a Canadian province. They will do this to escape the fate of rump Michigan. The rump of Michigan will eventually become an Islamic caliphate populated mainly by Arabs. Michigan’s blacks will flee the death of manufacturing and the rise of the caliphate in a migration to remaining urban US areas.


Most of the Florida peninsular will become an independent Spanish-speaking state, closely allied with a newly independent Cuba - the “mother country”.

I stand by the above predictions.''

I can see the possibility of Washington and Oregon, at least the Western parts, joining Canada. They are similar in culture and political leanings. Again, though, I don't see how the poster can just write off Texas, assuming Texans will passively rejoin Mexico, despite the fact that our ancestors fought mightily to free themselves from Mexico. There is a long memory of the cruelties of the Mexicans in that war for independence: Goliad, the Alamo, these things are still remembered in Texas, at least by real Texans. It's true that Texas now has a White minority but still Mexicans are not the majority yet.

I don't understand the rationale behind this poster's predictions:

"I don’t think the U.S. will break up, until Whites are too small (in numbers) to successfully secede.

However, if the U.S. were to break up within the next 10-20 years, here is what I would predict: Alaska joins Canada (at least for the interim), and Hawaii becomes independent until meeting an Asian power.

The Brown Hispanics will have at least South Florida, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and most of California.

Blacks will have at least Louisiana, Mississippi, and maybe southern Alabama. The black leaning wildcards are North Florida, South Georgia, and South Carolina. The White leaning wildcards are Colorado, Arkansas, north Georgia and the Eastern coast from North Carolina to New York.

Most of the rest would likely go to Whites, with a few small concessions to American Indians and Northeast Asians."

He seems to be counting the Whites in the Southron states out. Why? I still believe that, even after decades of demographic changes in the South, that the region has more spirit and more of a strong regional allegiance than most sections of the country. The South still maintains a memory of having been independent under the Confederacy and there is still, at least among the un-brainwashed populace, a commitment to the ideals of state's rights, and a sense of alienation from the D.C. government. If the South is a lost cause, then the rest of the country must be also.

This poster makes more sense to me:

''...There will only be three parts to a disunited states of america.

I expect the South to continue to be the most regionally identified part of the country…..from North Carolina to Oklahoma, and all states south of that line. I expect the remaining states to break up as East and West, dividing along the Mississippi River. I do not doubt that subgroups of these three parts will attempt to break away too, but the three main parts will use comprehensive pressure to retain control.

The South will find it difficult to avoid war with Mexico, so hold onto your hat. Mexico will try to recover Texas and there will be Texans that will help them. There will even be Texans that will prefer to go it alone as the Republic of Texas, but none of this will work. The South will fight for Texas and the South will expell the millions of illegal aliens. Both sides, therefore, will have plenty of reasons for war. (The East and the West will not try to expell their illegal alien populations, except on a state by state basis.)

I expect the South to be the first of the former US states to establish a working government. War with Mexico will speed that process enormously.''

There are the doomsaying comments, like this one:

I hate to say it friends, but this is pure comic book stuff here… you really think people are going to get up off their obese tail ends, turn off the television, get out from inf ront of the computer, and pick up a weapon and go out and man the front lines if… and that’s one gigantic IF… the whole House of Cards comes tumbling down? Let’s get real… What? Only 1 in 3 Americans even vote in Presidential elections anymore… witness this last one. And yes, while “we” like to think we are more “conscious” or “prepared” or possibly consciously or subconsciously hopeful for such a scenario, I’m afraid we are truly the “minority” now in this country. If Whites will be the Minority in the world by 2050, we will be GONE … extinct… by 2050. After Obama & Company’s “Thought-Police” and “PC Diversity Officers” have rounded enough of us up, any rudiments of even this beginning here will be gone. And AR? Realistically, how much longer do we even have here before this website and all those like it are shut down?

Hate to say it friends, but this following scenario is much more likely.

http://www.ourcivilisation.com/usa/cede.htm

This is sadly the prophecy that more than likely realistically awaits us… witness Rhodesia…. witness South Africa… witness what already has occurred and is occurring in this country since the 1960s.

And if we choose not to “go along to get along?” Then pack your bags, sell the house, sell the car, and start making plans to emigrate to… where? Realistically, where do WE go? Diaspora… OUR Diaspora is coming friends. And where will we go?

Where can we go now?
Posted by Argonauticus at 1:52 PM on January 3 ''

However these kinds of 'surrender, Dorothy' sentiments are in the minority.

To sum up my own thoughts, first of all, I think it's a mistake to believe that any dissolution has to happen in a violent, dramatic way. And it may not have to be the result of some kind of organized action. It may well happen spontaneously over time. It may happen as a result of economic collapse or another such event. We can't assume that it is impossible, or that our government is 'too strong' for it to happen, or that its occurrence is contingent on some kind of armed insurrection.

Stranger things have happened. Remember the fall of the old Soviet Union, which was presumed to be so strong? The Berlin Wall being knocked down? It all happened rather abruptly, although the process was probably occurring unnoticed for some time.

We are not immune or exempt, and our rulers have been sowing the wind for some time, with their insane spending, economic fecklessness, and our out-of-control immigration and ''diversity'' mania. Sooner or later these ''elites'' will reap the whirlwind, and unfortunately we will have to live with the chaos they created.

Again, I think it's a mistake to count America out. I think this comment says it rather well:

Prof. Panarin is looking in from the outside and his view is clouded by the liberal elites of academia and Washington. From that perfective [sic] Americans don’t really seem to care about America. And he would be correct. For over forty years now our Universities and most of our Federal Government has been brainwashed with Marxist Ideologies which they then use to turn around and brainwash yet another generation. But see, he is not in the living rooms of farmers in Indiana, or Oil workers in Alaska and Texas, or mothers taking there kids to church in any number of Midwest states. That is the real America. We are still here. We may be out numbered but we always have been. We are smarter, harder working, and more industrious than any other group of people to date on this earth.

America may come to an end as a political entity but the white European people that built this country will build again and they will still be the envy of the world.''

I agree, we are still here. I don't know how many of us there are, but as I say regularly, it does not take a majority or a vast number to effect change. We must not underestimate the 'real America' which is, after all, the people, not an institution or a governmental entity.


There are many more interesting comments, which I encourage you to read if you haven't already done so.
But I am interested in your further thoughts as to the possibilities. Are you in the ''it can't happen'' camp? If so, what are your reasons for believing that?

Do you think it can happen, but that it shouldn't? That a breakup of any kind would be detrimental to us if it happened? Are we better off with the ''devil we know"? What would be your ideal outcome? What would work best?


Also: Blogger AndyK at USA Deathwatch has a piece on this subject here.